Trend analysis of time-series data: a novel method for untargeted metabolite discovery

A new strategy for biomarker discovery is presented that uses time-series metabolomics data. Data sets from samples analysed at different time points after an intervention are searched for compounds that show a meaningful trend following the intervention. Obviously, this requires new data-analytical tools to distinguish such compounds from those showing only random variation. Two univariate methods, autocorrelation and curve-fitting, are used either as stand-alone methods or in combination to discover unknown metabolites in data sets originating from target-compound analysis. Both techniques reduce the long list of detected compounds in the kinetic sample set to include only those having a pre-defined interesting time profile. Thus, new metabolites may be discovered within data structures that are usually only used for target-compound analysis. The new strategy is tested on a sample set obtained from a gut fermentation study of a polyphenol-rich diet. For this study, the initial list of over 9000 potentially interesting features was reduced to less than 150, thus significantly reducing the expensive and time-consuming manual examination.